Levitt and Dubner, in trying to understand the decline in the U.S. crime rate during the 1990’s, argue that it is largely the result of the demographic changes stemming from Roe vs. Wade and the legalization of abortion.
Are you convinced by this explanation?
What are some other factors or explanations that might account for the decline in the crime rate?
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
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7 comments:
I've only just begun reading the book, and this subject arose early in the first chapter. While I'm not fully convinced that legalized abortion was the only factor that led to reduced crime rates in the mid-1990's, I am surprised that it was overlooked by the analysts.
I believe this argument is where Levitt is really able to show his economic prowess and ingenuity, in finding a possible solution which did not have an immediate impact on society.
I believe Levitt is correct in his explanation. It goes back to the simple supply and demand. Supply decreases and equilibrium drops. But notice, Levitt doesn't say it is the only factor, he presents it as the leading factor. Although, I believe the subject becomes more interesting if you look at abortion from another direction. As the book mentions, some people consider abortion a crime. If you take this point, you would see that the crime rate has skyrocketed. In which case, where would you look for an alternative solution to crime? Levitt has already presented several cases that had little effect. Surely there is another simple answer out there that has yet to be discovered.
I found Lewitt's comparison of the crime rate and abortion to be an intriguing one.
I had never thought of it that way before. However, as Timothy suggested, I do not believe that the crime rate has dropped. No...I believe that it is higher than it's ever been.
The only problem is that the law does not see abortion as crime. However, this isn't an abortion discussion so I won't get into it.
One must truly think about it. Nations have been aborted. However, if they had lived, would they have brought crime or redemtion? We'll never know.
Should we rejoice because crime has dropped, or should we mourn because it simply came through the back door and a law?
I was really surprised when Dubner mentioned abortion as a reason for the crime rate drop, but it does make sense. If the criminals weren't born because of legalized abortion, how could they wreak havoc on the world? Abortion is still wrong, and there are other ways to get rid of your child if you don't want it. But abortion leading to lowered crime rates makes sense.
I do not except abortion as a cause for the decrease in crime (if it truly decreased...), because of a few certain things. Who says abortions were only undergone by families with lower-incomes or criminal histories? Who is to say that the hope of families from a new generation, a generation that could possibly work their way out of destitution or illegality, wasn't just aborted, rather than being allowed to help the world?
Alesha W. is in concordance with my thought process.
I am leery when an analytical process takes a turn toward oversimplification, especially when the solution involves such an emotionally divisive political issue. I smell a story tellers device. Leprechauns wouldn't be half as interesting without their gold. As far as crime decreasing in the 1990s goes I would look at how popular NY city mayor Rudolf Giuliani made arresting window washers. It makes me think of security as an industry. Check out the charlie rose interview http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7730178717572023650
I agree that Levitt's explanation of the decreased crime rates as a result of the legalization of abortions was both intriguing and surprising. As a reflection of the structure of the book as a whole I believe this was a clever way for Levitt to introduce his approach to economics and prove his ability to undermine preconceived opinions in the reader's mind. I personally believe that this was a bold introduction as abortions are such a divisive concept in society.
In reference to whether the explanation was convincing, I believe Levitt proved how abortions could be a factor, but I am not convinced as to whether this was the only main reason for a decrease in crime. Despite statistics, it is difficult to say if crime has indeed decreased because with abortions it is a matter of opinion whether a mother who aborts her child is committing a crime herself.
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